Yatharth Hospital: Riding India’s Healthcare Boom | FY25 Review & FY26–27 Outlook
Introduction
India’s healthcare sector is on a rapid growth trajectory, driven by rising health awareness, growing income levels, and medical tourism. While the industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10–12%, North India is expected to outpace the national average with a 12–14% CAGR. Yet, with just 15 hospital beds per 10,000 people—against a global average of 33—there’s significant headroom for healthcare infrastructure expansion.
Amidst this opportunity, Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd. has carved a niche as a fast-growing healthcare provider in the NCR region. Its network of 7 hospitals with 2,300+ beds spans specialties like Oncology, Cardiology, Neurosciences, and Urology.
Yatharth’s growing presence in North India – 7 hospitals across NCR, UP, MP, and Haryana
Since its August 2023 IPO, Yatharth has clocked a 4-year CAGR of 40% in revenue and 61% in net profit. The stock has gained 64%, trading around ₹540.
Yatharth stock performance since IPO
Consistent revenue and profit compounding
Q4 FY25 Performance Snapshot
Yatharth delivered another strong quarter—mostly aligned with management’s guidance.
Q3 Guidance Recap
Management expected to maintain ~30% revenue growth YoY and stable-to-improving EBITDA margins in Q4, as existing hospitals ramp up and new ones begin contributing.
Q4 FY25 Results
- Revenue: ₹2,318 million (+30% YoY, +6% QoQ) ✅ Met Guidance
- EBITDA: ₹570 million (+23% YoY), Margin at 24.6% ⚠️ Slightly Below Expectations
- PAT: ₹387 million (+1% YoY) ❌ Below Expectations, due to higher depreciation
- ARPOB: ₹31,441 (↑7% YoY); Noida Extension led with ₹38,806 (↑11%)
- Occupancy: Rose from 57% to 61% YoY
- Faridabad Contribution: Now 9% of total Q4 sales
FY25 Full-Year Highlights
- Revenue: ₹8,805 million (+31% YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹2,202 million (+22% YoY)
- PAT: ₹1,306 million (+14% YoY)
- Operational Investments: Robotics and PET line additions across hospitals
- Key Driver: Noida Extension grew 50% to ₹3,231 million (37% of total sales)
Management Commentary & Guidance (Q4 FY25 Call)
The management struck an optimistic tone, with a clear strategy to build on existing momentum and scale new hospitals profitably.
Growth & Profitability Outlook
- Revenue Growth: ~30% YoY growth guided for FY26 & FY27
- EBITDA Margins: Steady at 24–25% expected; current quarter seen as the “baseline”
- New Hospital Ramp-Up: Delhi & Sec-20 Faridabad to incur EBITDA losses for 12–15 months post launch, similar to Greater Faridabad (which broke even in Year 1)
Expansion Strategy
- Geography: Focused on Delhi NCR, UP, Haryana, with eye on Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar
- Bed Capacity: Two hospitals (Delhi ~300 beds; Faridabad ~400 beds) to be fully operational by June 2025
- Specialty Mix: Push to raise super-specialty share to 60–70% of hospital revenue
- Medical Tourism: Increased focus on patients from Nigeria, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
Risks & Concerns
- Working Capital: High receivables (120 days) targeted to reduce to 80 by limiting institutional billing
- Occupancy Dip in Noida: Result of payer mix “cleansing” but expected to bounce back
Capital Allocation
- Capex for FY26: ₹300 crore, including ₹150 crore in equipment for new hospitals
- Per-Bed Capex: ₹7–8 million
- M&A: 1 acquisition targeted this year; management prefers full asset ownership (land included) with no lease-based O&M models
Revenue Trend Analysis & Hospital-Wise Insights
Noida Extension leads with 37% contribution
Growth Drivers
- Greater Faridabad & Jhansi-Orchha: Fastest growing in terms of revenue
- Noida Extension: Largest contributor with robust ARPOB and revenue
- Jhansi-Orchha: Momentum slowing slightly—needs monitoring
Occupancy catching up while ARPOB keeps rising
Key Metrics
- Faridabad: Fast occupancy ramp-up, moderate ARPOB growth
- Jhansi: Slower occupancy, but high ARPOB growth
- Noida: Lower occupancy, but strong ARPOB increase due to payer mix optimization
FY26 & FY27 Revenue Forecasts
The following projections are based on management guidance, hospital-specific trends, ARPOB assumptions (+10%), and occupancy ramp-up plans.
FY26 Revenue Forecast for Existing Hospitals
Occupancy of Greater Noida, Noida and Noida Extension look quite saturated based on trend from Q1 to Q4 FY25, hence there is little scope for increasing occupancy. Jhansi-Orchha showed grawth but its very slow. Faridabad on the other hand is quite promising. These are our judgement calls on the growth levers. For ARPOB, we are considering a quite generous 10% increase as per guidance.
| Hospital | ARPOB FY25 | Occupancy FY25 | ARPOB FY26 | Occupancy FY26 | Revenue FY25 | Revenue FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Noida | ₹34,605 | 65% | ₹38,066 | 65% | ₹2,715 mn | ₹2,987 mn |
| Noida | ₹29,238 | 79% | ₹32,162 | 79% | ₹1,817 mn | ₹1,999 mn |
| Noida Extension | ₹38,033 | 60% | ₹41,836 | 60% | ₹3,231 mn | ₹3,554 mn |
| Jhansi-Orchha | ₹13,218 | 50% | ₹14,540 | 55% | ₹606 mn | ₹733 mn |
| Faridabad | ₹30,721 | 38% | ₹33,793 | 55% | ₹436 mn | ₹706 mn |
FY26 Revenue Forecast for New Hospitals
Based on management guidance, the two new hospitals—Delhi (Model Town) and Faridabad (Sector 20)—will become operational starting Q2 FY26. Their ramp-up trajectory is modeled based on trends from previous hospitals, with the following assumptions:
- ARPOB: ₹34,000 for Delhi and ₹30,000 for Faridabad
- Occupancy Ramp-up Assumptions:
| Hospital | Q2 Occupancy | Q3 Occupancy | Q4 Occupancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi (Model Town) | 7% | 15% | 30% |
| Faridabad (Sec 20) | 5% | 10% | 15% |
- FY26 Revenue Projection for New Hospitals (₹ mn):
| Hospital | Q2 Revenue | Q3 Revenue | Q4 Revenue | Total FY26 Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi (Model Town) | 25.50 | 54.06 | 108.12 | 187.68 |
| Faridabad (Sec 20) | 10.80 | 21.60 | 32.40 | 64.80 |
As these hospitals are in their early stages of operations, FY26 will only capture the initial ramp-up. Revenue is expected to increase each quarter as occupancy builds, with Delhi hospital contributing significantly more due to its higher ARPOB and larger bed capacity.
This new revenue stream adds an incremental layer of growth and will play a crucial role in helping Yatharth achieve its long-term revenue and margin expansion goals in FY27 and beyond.
FY27 Revenue Forecast
| Hospital | ARPOB FY26 | Occupancy FY26 | ARPOB FY27 | Occupancy FY27 | Revenue FY26 | Revenue FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Noida | ₹38,066 | 65% | ₹41,872 | 65% | ₹2,987 mn | ₹3,285 mn |
| Noida | ₹32,162 | 79% | ₹35,378 | 79% | ₹1,999 mn | ₹2,199 mn |
| Noida Extension | ₹41,836 | 60% | ₹46,020 | 60% | ₹3,554 mn | ₹3,910 mn |
| Jhansi-Orchha | ₹14,540 | 55% | ₹15,994 | 55% | ₹733 mn | ₹807 mn |
| Faridabad | ₹33,793 | 55% | ₹37,172 | 60% | ₹706 mn | ₹857 mn |
| Delhi | ₹34,000 | 15% | ₹37,400 | 50% | ₹188 mn | ₹1,552 mn |
| Faridabad (Sec-20) | ₹30,000 | 10% | ₹33,000 | 40% | ₹65 mn | ₹855 mn |
Combined Outlook
- FY26 Total Revenue: ₹10,232 million (16%)
- FY27 Total Revenue: ₹15,464 million (51%)
At-least in FY26, it looks difficut to achieve their 30% guidance, it would be interesting to see if they achieve this target and what are levers of growth.
Profitability and Valuation Projections
| Metric | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ mn) | 8,805 | 10,232 | 15,464 |
| Revenue Growth (%) | – | 16.2% | 51.15% |
| EBITDA (₹ mn) | 2,202 | 2,510 | 4,021 |
| Net Profit (₹ mn) | 1,306 | 353 | 3,093 |
| EPS (₹) | 13.55 | 3.66 | 32.08 |
| Share Price (₹ est) | 539.29 | 145.74 | 1,276.78 |
Commentary
- FY26 Dip: Margins and PAT dip temporarily as new hospitals scale up
- FY27 Surge: Sharp rebound as Delhi & Sec-20 Faridabad contribute fully
- Valuation Upside: FY27 EPS implies a 136% upside if P/E holds
Conclusion: Strategy for Investors
Yatharth Hospital is navigating its growth phase with strategic clarity. Its strong execution so far, upcoming capacity ramp-ups, and focus on super-specialties and medical tourism position it well for long-term outperformance.
However, the stock may face short-term pressure in FY26 due to rising costs and integration drag. Investors with a long-term horizon can use price dips during this phase to accumulate.
Disclaimer
This analysis reflects personal views and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Personal Note
Having tracked Yatharth’s execution, I remain bullish on its long-term prospects. I plan to gradually accumulate shares through FY26 and re-evaluate after the full integration of new hospitals.